Thread: TV: Gearhead show phenomenon

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Well TC, I could write a whole article about this as I've been talking about it for several years now. There are an awful lot of factors, and variables, that go into a thorough answer to your question. My being at the front end of the Boomers, guys like you are my hope, but further down the age stream I suspect you've already got a good inkling of what could happen.

We'll be getting a micro picture of what will happen over the next few years. If you've ever been around Ford V8er's (the majority of whom are in their late '60's through '70's+ right now), the mostly stock flathead crowd, you'll be aware that they are approaching that point in their life where they (or their widows) need to start clearing out the garage. Motivated either by death or the need to move to a "retirement home", or maybe just general infirmity, they either can't, or no longer want to, play with cars. In the short run, that means that us older guys that can afford them will have a hey day buying up decent vintage tin, and stashes of parts. Depending on how much these guys have salted away, and how quickly their numbers choose (or are forced) to liquidate, will determine the supply and demand factors, thus pricing.

But the "street/hod rod" crowd, as you indicated, are largely in their 50's and 40's right now, and are in much larger numbers. It's hard to predict, but using the V8ers as a model, we're probably 15-20 years away from the "purge" begining. (barring some unforseen outside influence that could shorten that cycle) An early sign will be the gradual failure of the suppliers you noted. It probably won't happen so quickly to be easily perceived by most, but at some point people will begin to wonder "What happened?". Sure, we see some younger guys getting into the older cars, but no where near equal replacement numbers. Look around at the profiles on this site. Most of the guys under 35 have cars from the 70's and 80's, and since they're here, that's what they consider "hot rods". Some of them have been influenced by older relatives and may have an older car, but not much older than the '50's. Likely that's a matter of cost barriers. As they progress in their "careers" and discretionary dollars become more available, if they retain their interest in older cars, they may become candidates to buy what we older guys will eventually have to shed. But again, supply and demand will prevail. Those younger guys will think they're in hog heaven, and us older guys, at least the ones further down the age range, will be bitching about how the bottom has fallen out of the market. Certain "special" cars will probably hold up well, think of the well documented or especially unique cars that pull down the incredible numbers at deals like Barrett-Jackson, but again, that's a very small minority. The discerning collectors for those cars will have a wonderful time as they won't have as much competition forcing prices up. The more "mundane" cars will be in a sort of "free fall". They'll hold some value, but nothing like we see today. The real pieces of crap that seem to pull good money today just because of the demand, will be practically throw away pieces. Steel cars will be much more favored, and will thus command a better comparative price.

There's really much more to it, and the economics of funding an ever more dependant (and "entitlement" driven) societal attitude will be a significant wild card. But I don't believe there's any reason to expect today's younger generation to become excited about our generation's hot buttons in large enough numbers. If they did, it would be a first for human nature.