The future of rodding?

[Bob Parmenter]

If you're not too much into stats and surveys this won't interest you, if you are, dig in. Now, like most surveys there's some preloading in the format of the questions asked, and then there's the interpretation. SEMA of course has a vested interest in seeing the sunny side of any data. The one that is most meaningful to me is the chart of the age demographic of the pool of folks surveyed. Basically, our hobby is HEAVILY loaded to the over 40 crowd, 70% of the survey population. Probably not a surprise to most of you. Just look at all the grey hair (what there is of it ) at most events. Also, not surprisingly, muscle cars win out in popularity over rods and restoreds. Anyway, enjoy the numbers.

http://www.sema.org/Main/ArticleDeta...ontentID=58192

[FAYLUR]

Good article.And if GM and Chrysler could match Fords mustang in popularity,performance,and price the hotrod industry will stay strong for decads.I say this because of the cost of muscle cars and pre-muscle car rods going up,up,up and the your average Joe couldn't afford them.
The popularity of the mustang is keeping the billions of tax dollars flowing to Sam and that may be what will keep the hotrod industry thriving,tax dollars!
Ricers are making the dollars flow as well but are they 'generally' accepted as the core,heart and soul of the hotrod industry? (hope not)

[mopar34]

Not many surprises there. Have known for a while what age group is mostly into various cars. As you said just look around at the shows and events. Valid reasons for it especially in just about all classes.

As for muscle cars, I had my run with them back in the late 60's and early 70's. For the majority of the population, very few were interested in muscle cars from about 1978 thru 1999. But when they started bringing big bucks at various auctions and sales, everybody had a re-newed interest and wanted one. Many of those people were just looking to turn them around for big bucks. Not many were looking at them as a long term investment or as a pleasure car.

My experience at car events has been lots of people interested in restored pony and muscle cars primarily because they were built from 1967 to 1974 and most people remember seeing them or ownng them. Customs and restored 1940's to 1970 cars are also very popular as many people remember them or owned them. And streetrods and hotrods of the 20's, 30's, and 40's are the least viewed by spectators because unless there is something really exciting about the vehicle, many people alive today don't remember when they were on the street as originals (if some ever were). The people who really like them... are the kids... ages 5 thru 14... they think streetrods are really cool. And that may be the hope of our hobby.

So with that, I think our hobby has potential as these kids grow up as long as they remember fondly what they saw at the shows. If not, I guess they will go the way of the older teenagers today.......Ricer Racers.

jmo and 2 cents.

[Bob Parmenter]

Good discussion guys. The primary consideration when the conversation comes around to prices, especially when they go up, is demand has to be there first to bid up the prices. Without demand, prices would remain "soft". With that in mind, I would suggest that two things contribute to the recent (say last 10 years or so) swing in favor of "newer" cars as opposed to the typical old line rods that were largely pre-WWII. One was the guys who had been doing the more traditional bodied cars (regardless of style) were at a point in their lives where they were both interested/motivated to do "something different", and financially more able (kids gone, higher job achievement/pay, mortgage paid, college costs gone, whatever). They fell back on, as mentioned, what they knew in their youth, either as actual owners or wishers. The second group were the somewhat younger guys who never got into traditional earlier cars, but knew muscle well from their youth as well. These folks were/are in their personally stronger financial position, though maybe not as strong as the older guy who might have both kinds of cars in his garage. Both of these enthusiasts are solidly in the over 40 set. As they both "converged" on the muscle market near simultaneously the competition for acquisition tested the limits of supply, driving up prices.

Now the nut of the matter. Sad(?) reality is this group will be dying in the coming years, removing demand from the market. Looking at the numbers, there aren't enough younger guys who will be as interested to maintain a one for one replacement rate, even as those younger guys become more financially viable (assuming they won't be taxed to death to support SSI and medicare, a realistic, unfortunate possibility). Looks to me like those young guys are going to have a very big supply of cars they desire to pick from, and likely at ever dropping prices (to a point). When that will happen (and it won't be a light switch moment, rather a gradually accelerating situation) is wide open for speculation, but it will happen. It's in the numbers.

[HOTRODPAINT]

Like many of the parts of the custom vehicle hobby that I work in, "hot rods" are splintering into many, many groups. Much of it is related to the enthusiasts age, and the cars he grew up around.

If I had to bet, I would bet that a key factor is the type of car you develop a passion for at a young age. When I got heavily involved, it was the sixties and seventies. Being a youngster, I had to play with the cars I could afford, which were about 10 years old, so they were generally '50s & '60s models. Today I work on every type of toy, from every era, but my real passion is still for the same types of cars, the way we were building them at that time.

I believe that will also remain a "constant" for newcomers. The cars they are building today will be their lifelong favorite. It is the car they can afford to buy, and drive to work, and the kind of cars that their friends admire too. I know this will not be the types that we older enthusiasts prefer, but the hobby will live on and prosper. Just remember when your dad and mine said "I don't know why you waste all of your time on that car." Well, today we are thinking the same thing about our kids and their front-wheel-drive cars.....but they know why! It's the same "love affair" that we had with a '49 Ford, or a '57 Chevy, or a '62 Impala. :-) Nothing stays the same.

[robot]

Bob, your point about the base dying off and creating a recession in the demand is well illustrated by the "restored" vintage car hobby (sometimes wrongly called "classic" market). The guys who funded the hobby of pre WWII restored cars are passing and their heirs have no use for a '34 Nash or whatever. I believe that the demand for this segment has fallen....Fords and the like are the exception since a different group of buyers now want the restored Ford to make a hot rod. Similiarly, in the future, the muscle car guys will pass and their heirs will sell their inherited Hemis so they can buy a vintage rice-mobile.

mike in tucson

[1973Swinger]

their heirs will sell their inherited Hemis so they can buy a vintage rice-mobile.

I cant wait for that day.....

[Dan Stewart]

Aren't baby boomers the largest group of the population? And with more disposable income than other groups.......the next few years are going to be very lucrative for the industry.

[HOTRODPAINT]

I've been working for others for 35 years. When I was 25, I worked for 25 year olds. It was hard because they often could not afford what they were trying to do. Today I generally work for people from 35 to 65. They can afford more now, but what is even better is that they don't want a "cheap job" any more....they want a "good job". They are not as willing to compromise everything else to save money. I think the same thing can be said about their purchases.

[Bob Parmenter]

Aren't baby boomers the largest group of the population?

Approximately 77 million, roughly 25% of the population, fall between the ages of 45-61

[Dave Severson]

My youngest customer in the last couple of years who got any significant work done was 40!!!! Well, other then the circle burners who always show up trying to scrounge parts to patch the race car they can in no way afford back together....

I have to say another big difference I have noticed is that the younger crowd doesn't want to seem to want to take on a part time job, work some overtime, or do a whole lot not specifically included in their blessed job description to obtain some extra bucks to build a project with..... Guess maybe they just aren't all that interested. Years ago when we were still racing, I worked and raced.....period.....About the only socializing or partying was maybe after the races, but not then if you were racing the next night.... Seems I always had a full time job and at least one part time job, plus doing a bunch of side jobs at home to get the latest race car or hot rod done and running.... Maybe I'm not looking in the right places, but I just don't see a lot of the younger crowd wanting to expend that much time and energy to come up with the $$$$$ it takes to build a car these days....

[blwn31]

I have been thinking what will become of the car hobby too. I turned 39 last month. I worry what will happen with the Street Rod part of the hobby/sport. I got the bug from my dad at an early age and love the cars. I have been lucky enough to buy 2 cars one coupe that I have about 80% done and a sedan for the family, although still in original driving condition. My 4yr old and 2 1/2yr old love them. They really love going to the hot rod shows. But, you know, any hot rod costs a lot of money to restore or upgrade if you do it nicely. I hope there is enough intrest from the next generation to continue the hobby. I'm not talking about these rice burners. They have there place, just not mine.

Keith...

[gassersrule_196]

very well said dave, i can agree with you on may levels of that with my own friends. i have told some of my friends about 3 jobs the good kind where all u ahve to do is show up say my name and smile and your hired, they dont want the job, not easy enough. not enough money. well i guess that 50 dollars is better than zero dollars but maybe thats just me? put the bong and beer can down and get off the fing couch graduate and get a job! wow that turned into a rant real quick

I have to say another big difference I have noticed is that the younger crowd doesn't want to seem to want to take on a part time job, work some overtime, or do a whole lot not specifically included in their blessed job description to obtain some extra bucks to build a project with..... Guess maybe they just aren't all that interested. Years ago when we were still racing, I worked and raced.....period.....About the only socializing or partying was maybe after the races, but not then if you were racing the next night.... Seems I always had a full time job and at least one part time job, plus doing a bunch of side jobs at home to get the latest race car or hot rod done and running.... Maybe I'm not looking in the right places, but I just don't see a lot of the younger crowd wanting to expend that much time and energy to come up with the $$$$$ it takes to build a car these days....

[Sinister]

There are a handful of us young guys out there who will try to keep the hobby alive. I'm 26, a big fan of the 60's and 70's muscle cars, but I also love the stuff from the 30's thru 50's, they have some of the best body styles I've ever seen! I've often wondered if there will even be a hotrod hobby 30 to 40 years from now. I just can't see anyone restoring or modifing a nissan maxima, or a prius, but that's neither here nor there. In the mean time I'm going to try and get the income up, and keep buying the old hotrod stuff.

Later,


Adam

[mopar34]

Maybe I'm not looking in the right places, but I just don't see a lot of the younger crowd wanting to expend that much time and energy to come up with the $$$$$ it takes to build a car these days....

In a way you are correct. Building versus re-modeling is the key. A lot of young kids (ages 16 - 24) would me more than willing to put $35,000 into a already built car like a Honda Civic or an Acura Integra then they would be to build a 32/33/34 from the ground up. First, they want instant gratification and not to have to wait for 6 months to a year for an all new car. And second many know that their investment will not only get them nearly instant wheels but very comfortable and very fast wheels. Many of those those hyper ricers (NOS) can blow the doors off most street rods, even rods with big, big blocks, especially from stop light to stop light. The money is not the problem for most of this age group (non-married, no dependents, no mortgage), the direction in which they intend to spend it is.

Who knows, one day when they are 50 years old or more, they may decide that street rods and customs really are pretty kool.